I only partially agree with you about the funding matter. While I agree, that it is a huge issue in modern science (yet I don’t think it is very unique, more a special case of the system with limited resources and high number of people competing for them), it is a huge oversimplification telling that for each grant application the same amount of time is spent. It is more like a once a huge work, which later can be reused over and over again. At the end it is better situation, that is described in the article. For me bigger problem is the risk assessment. You have a choice of submitting high risk high reword project, which is not going to be funded because of reviewers do not believe that it is doable. If you get funding, there still high probability you fail. Logical in this situation is to stick to safe projects, but safe in this case equals boring.
The concept of rent dissipation is general. Everything else being equal, people who spend more time on their grant applications are more often successful. Thus there is a strong incentive to spend more and more time on grant applications, and to apply on more and more grants. All this time and effort is at the expense of actual research.
PWRsays:
> We have entered a ‘dark age’ where we are mostly stagnant. It is not that there is no progress per se, but progress is slow, uncommon and expensive. Why might that be?
It might also be the case that humankind has already plucked most of the lower hanging fruits in research, i.e., big questions with huge impact that are nevertheless solvable by the insights of one person or a small group. To reach the higher hanging fruits, everyone is getting more and more specialized and hence the problems we are thinking about are also more and more specialized. In contrast, earlier in this century, at least in STEM, the field was still relatively small, and people like J von Neumann had the possibility of being true experts in multiple disciplines.
The problem with this argument is that it could have been made at any point in history. Many people at the end of the start of the XXth century thought that most things had been resolved. Surely they could not imagine quantum mechanics, airplanes, and so forth.
Andrew Dalkesays:
The late 1800s was a period of radical invention and social transformation. I doubt most people thought most things had been resolved.
Despite the wide-spread claim that United States Commissioner of Patents Charles Holland Duell said “everything that can be invented has been invented”, in 1902 he actually wrote:
In my opinion, all previous advances in the various lines of invention will appear totally insignificant when compared with those which the present century will witness. I almost wish that I might live my life over again to see the wonders which are at the threshold.
> The late 1800s was a period of radical invention and social transformation. I doubt most people thought most things had been resolved.
I also doubt that. I also doubt that today most people think that most things have been resolved.
What I am saying that, at all points in history, people could say that all the important or easy things have been discovered. Repeatedly, these people have been wrong. It does not prove that they are wrong today, but it suggests that we must first thoroughly investigate the other side of the coin.
It comes down to this… Either we are bad at our job, or else the job is too hard and cannot be done. It is easier to opt for the second explanation but I think we have much evidence for the first explanation to hold. We have radically transformed how science and innovation run. These radical transformations are associated with much stagnation.
> Many people at the end of the start of the XXth century thought that most things had been resolved.
is not contradicted by…
> I doubt most people thought most things had been resolved.
Most likely, both statement held true!
Franksays:
Maybe there are too many researchers these days – if there were less, there would be less competition for grants, and thus less need to spend time on grants. STEM has become too prestigious – maybe because science actually “works” (as shown by all the benefits we have derived through technology). As for “winning prizes”, it’s clearly a distraction. I’m looking forward to Academia 2.0, but I’m afraid it’s not going to happen any time soon.
I only partially agree with you about the funding matter. While I agree, that it is a huge issue in modern science (yet I don’t think it is very unique, more a special case of the system with limited resources and high number of people competing for them), it is a huge oversimplification telling that for each grant application the same amount of time is spent. It is more like a once a huge work, which later can be reused over and over again. At the end it is better situation, that is described in the article. For me bigger problem is the risk assessment. You have a choice of submitting high risk high reword project, which is not going to be funded because of reviewers do not believe that it is doable. If you get funding, there still high probability you fail. Logical in this situation is to stick to safe projects, but safe in this case equals boring.
The concept of rent dissipation is general. Everything else being equal, people who spend more time on their grant applications are more often successful. Thus there is a strong incentive to spend more and more time on grant applications, and to apply on more and more grants. All this time and effort is at the expense of actual research.
> We have entered a ‘dark age’ where we are mostly stagnant. It is not that there is no progress per se, but progress is slow, uncommon and expensive. Why might that be?
It might also be the case that humankind has already plucked most of the lower hanging fruits in research, i.e., big questions with huge impact that are nevertheless solvable by the insights of one person or a small group. To reach the higher hanging fruits, everyone is getting more and more specialized and hence the problems we are thinking about are also more and more specialized. In contrast, earlier in this century, at least in STEM, the field was still relatively small, and people like J von Neumann had the possibility of being true experts in multiple disciplines.
The problem with this argument is that it could have been made at any point in history. Many people at the end of the start of the XXth century thought that most things had been resolved. Surely they could not imagine quantum mechanics, airplanes, and so forth.
The late 1800s was a period of radical invention and social transformation. I doubt most people thought most things had been resolved.
Despite the wide-spread claim that United States Commissioner of Patents Charles Holland Duell said “everything that can be invented has been invented”, in 1902 he actually wrote:
> The late 1800s was a period of radical invention and social transformation. I doubt most people thought most things had been resolved.
I also doubt that. I also doubt that today most people think that most things have been resolved.
What I am saying that, at all points in history, people could say that all the important or easy things have been discovered. Repeatedly, these people have been wrong. It does not prove that they are wrong today, but it suggests that we must first thoroughly investigate the other side of the coin.
It comes down to this… Either we are bad at our job, or else the job is too hard and cannot be done. It is easier to opt for the second explanation but I think we have much evidence for the first explanation to hold. We have radically transformed how science and innovation run. These radical transformations are associated with much stagnation.
And as a matter of consistency, the statement…
> Many people at the end of the start of the XXth century thought that most things had been resolved.
is not contradicted by…
> I doubt most people thought most things had been resolved.
Most likely, both statement held true!
Maybe there are too many researchers these days – if there were less, there would be less competition for grants, and thus less need to spend time on grants. STEM has become too prestigious – maybe because science actually “works” (as shown by all the benefits we have derived through technology). As for “winning prizes”, it’s clearly a distraction. I’m looking forward to Academia 2.0, but I’m afraid it’s not going to happen any time soon.
Wow, academics spend 40 working days for a single grant application? That sounds insane. What do people spend all that time on?
Grant applications are essentially bureaucratic documents providing plans, strategies, budgets and so forth.