Daniel Lemire's blog

, 3 min read

Science and Technology links (April 6th 2019)

  1. In a randomized trial where people reduced their caloric intake by 15% for two years, it was found that reducing calories slowed aging. This is well documented in animals, going all the way to worms and insects, but we now have some evidence that it applies to human being as well. Personnally I do not engage in either caloric restriction or fasting, but I am convinced it would be good for me to do so.
  2. What is the likely economic impact of climate change over the coming century? We do not know for sure. However, all estimates point to a modest impact, always significantly less than 10% of the size of the economy over a century while the world’s economy grows at about 3% a year.

Clearly, 27 estimates are a thin basis for drawing definitive conclusions about the total welfare impacts of climate change. (…) it is unclear whether climate change will lead to a net welfare gain or loss. At the same time, however, despite the variety of methods used to estimate welfare impacts, researchers agree on the order of magnitude, with the welfare change caused by climate change being equivalent to the welfare change caused by an income change of a few percent. That is, these estimates suggest that a century of climate change is about as good/bad for welfare as a year of economic growth.

  1. Is the scientific establishment biased against women or not? Miller reports on new research showing that men tend to reject evidence of bias whereas women tend to reject contrary evidence.
  2. Technology greatly improved the productivity of farming. We are often told that the reason we did not see famines on a massive scale despite earlier predictions to that effect (e.g., by the Club of Rome) is due to the so-called Green Revolution. It is seems that this not well founded on facts:

We argue a political myth of the Green Revolution focused on averted famine is not well grounded in evidence and thus has potential to mislead to the extent it guides thinking and action related to technological innovation. We recommend an alternative narrative: The Green Evolution, in which sustainable improvements in agricultural productivity did not necessarily avert a global famine, but nonetheless profoundly shaped the modern world.

  1. Sugar does not give your mood a boost. We do not feel more energetic after eating sugar.
  2. Though e-cigarettes are probably incomparably safer than actual cigarettes, people have been banning them on the ground that e-cigarettes might be a gateway toward cigarettes. They are likely wrong. If anything, e-cigarettes are probably a solution for people who have not managed to stop smoking by other means. They have been found to be a highly effective way to stop smoking. Thus e-cigarettes are likely saving lifes; people who ban e-cigarettes despite the evidence should have to answer for the consequences of their choices.
  3. People who think that little boys are more physically aggressive than little girls because of how they are raised are likely wrong.1. I am impressed with the courage of these researchers: Oral sex is associated with reduced incidence of recurrent miscarriage (Journal of Reproductive Immunology, 2019).