Daniel Lemire's blog

, 9 min read

Secular stagnation: we are trimming down

12 thoughts on “Secular stagnation: we are trimming down”

  1. Benoit says:

    Congrats on the new (mobile?) design! It looks and feels great.

  2. Ben says:

    I know that there is a non-trivial amount of work in this direction, but I think the rich world desperately needs something vaguely like Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness. In other words, a broad index that includes (hopefully uncontroversial) things like health, education, basic physical security. I don’t imagine such an index directly capturing the output of most “knowledge workers”, but if those products don’t have a indirect effect on people’s wellbeing, maybe they weren’t so valuable after all.

    1. There are many organizations working on documenting progress. See for example http://humanprogress.org/

    2. ThirteenthLetter says:

      “In other words, a broad index that includes (hopefully uncontroversial) things like health, education, basic physical security.”

      Unfortunately it will be politicized in under a nanosecond, so any country that doesn’t hew to fashionable opinions on the issue of the day will get defined as less happy. (Don’t have socialized medicine or government-subsidized college education or hate speech laws? Then your country is “less happy,” and never mind actual outcomes in health or education or societal cohesion.) At least GNP existed before the current trend of hyper-politicization and is harder to distort or weaponize in this fashion.

  3. Saulo says:

    The new design is great, congratulations!

  4. Matt Fulkerson says:

    Coming up with new measures may be worthwhile, but one must be careful not to fall into the intellectual trap of redefining and/or discarding old measures to get the desired answer.

    1. There was a time when how many farm animals you owned was a good proxy for your wealth. These people would view a society where hardly anyone can afford to own a cow as a very bad thing. In the industrial era, GDP was a good proxy for how well we were doing. Correspondingly, people in the 1950s would have viewed a society where kids own fewer cars than their parent as a step backward…

      1. Matt Fulkerson says:

        Sure, but the measures still need to be quantifiable. Otherwise this just becomes a subjective exercise where for every measure of increasing progress, one can easily find another measure of decreasing progress, for example decreased disposable incoming after subtracting out the costs of housing, education, and health care.

        Rather than just condemning the measure as no longer valid, why not just admit that we need to find ways to be content in spite of the reality that the at least partially valid measure represents?

        I would agree with your car ownership example if kids these days truly don’t need a car to get to their job, and also if the choice to forgo car ownership is not due to economic hardship but instead is a lifestyle choice.

        1. “Sure, but the measures still need to be quantifiable.”

          I agree.

          “Rather than just condemning the measure as no longer valid, why not just admit that we need to find ways to be content in spite of the reality (…)”

          Right.

          Things were nicer in the 1970s: strong middle class, little “inequality”. Wasn’t it great?

          I don’t think so.

          Feel free to go back to 1970 if you want to. No Internet. No organ transplant. Leaded gas. Most college graduates being men.

          1. Matt Fulkerson says:

            We had tremendous growth in GDP since 1970, about 3x in the U.S. Certainly a chunk of that GDP growth is due to the internet. Advances in clean air also and medicine also correlate somewhat with productivity. And of course more women being educated leads to more GDP, due to the increase of people in the workforce.

            So if GDP at least correlates nicely with these advances, what is wrong with the measure?

            Now, I think we are partly arguing past each other, and I agree that GDP will under measure the value of things like equal access to education. There is certainly more to quality of life than increased productivity. But it may be tricky to quantify quality of life with a new measure that is widely agreed upon.

            Anyway, if you care to comment one more time, feel free, and I’ll read your comment and leave it there. Thanks!

  5. Marco says:

    Kale consumption will drive the next boom!

    1. The Kale we have today, maybe not, but genetically modified Kale, with anti-aging properties? Maybe.